Morgan Stanley On AI And The Future Of Work

By Seth Carpenter, chief economist at Morgan Stanley

Questions about the economic effects of AI are endless. Expectations range from an unspeakable dystopia with no room for humans to a utopia where all constraints disappear. Stephen Byrd – Head of Thematic Research for Morgan Stanley – and Seth Carpenter – Chief Global Economist – held a webcast this week with Anton Korinek, one of the leading academic scholars in the field.

Right now, generative AI is being deployed but truly 'transformative AI' remains another question. Transformational technological change is rare in history but has permanent repercussions. Before the Industrial Revolution, land was the limiting factor for the size of the economy. After it, labor and the rate of change in technological progress determined the feasible size and growth of the economy. The Industrial Revolution was 'transformative' by this definition, setting it apart from even the advent of electricity and the internet. Transformative AI would come if advances mean that human-level intelligence is not only reproducible but can also be improved by AI technology itself and embodied in robotics. At that point, the limits on the size and growth of the economy will blur again, and the question of what humans will do becomes unavoidable.