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Duffy Warns Flight Cancellations Could Top 20% If Gov't Shutdown Drags On 

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by Tyler Durden
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Update (1420ET):

Ahead of today's Senate vote, there are growing signs the longest government shutdown on record could soon end, with Polymarket odds indicating a 24% chance it will be resolved between November 12 and 15.

If the shutdown drags on into the middle of the month or longer, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned Friday that flight reductions could reach 20%. 

"If this continues, and I have more controllers who decide they can't come to work, can't control the airspace, but instead have to take a second job — with that, you might see 10 percent would have been a good number, because we might go to 15 percent or 20 percent," Duffy said at a Breitbart News event in Washington DC. 

Duffy told The Hill, "Could it go there? That's possible. There's no plan for that," adding, "I assess the data and how many controllers I have, and I'm just saying we're going to make decisions based on what we see in the airspace to make sure we keep it safe. I hope it goes the other direction." 

"I've had some complaints from Democrats, 'We want to see the data. … This is political,'" Duffy said during the event with Breitbart. "This has not been political. We have worked overtime to make sure that we minimize the impact on the American people."

As of this afternoon, FAA flight cancellations are expected to top 4% across 40 airports nationwide. An earlier update below specifies the most impacted airport.

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A wave of flight cancellations and delays is already rippling across U.S. airports after the Federal Aviation Administration ordered airlines to reduce 4% of flights at 40 of the nation's busiest airports to ease pressure on unpaid air traffic controllers amid the record-long government shutdown. The airlines most at risk today include Spirit, Frontier, and United.

The FAA's unprecedented directive will cut flight operations by 4% today, rising to 6% by next Tuesday and reaching 10% by mid-month, that's if the federal government remains shut down.

For some context, a 10% reduction will result in about 4,400 flights canceled per day, causing widespread travel chaos nationwide ahead of the holiday period later this month. 

As of Friday morning, the aviation website FlightAware shows 822 flight cancellations within, into, or out of the U.S. and 805 delays within, into, or out of the U.S. Those numbers are expected to rise through the day.

Cancellations begin: 

Major U.S. Airports Affected by FAA Flight Reductions:

  • ANC – Ted Stevens Anchorage International

  • ATL – Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International

  • BOS – Boston Logan International

  • BWI – Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall

  • CLT – Charlotte Douglas International

  • CVG – Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International

  • DAL – Dallas Love Field

  • DCA – Ronald Reagan Washington National

  • DEN – Denver International

  • DFW – Dallas/Fort Worth International

  • DTW – Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County

  • EWR – Newark Liberty International

  • FLL – Fort Lauderdale–Hollywood International

  • HNL – Daniel K. Inouye Honolulu International

  • HOU – William P. Hobby (Houston)

  • IAD – Washington Dulles International

  • IAH – George Bush Intercontinental (Houston)

  • IND – Indianapolis International

  • JFK – John F. Kennedy International (New York)

  • LAS – Harry Reid International (Las Vegas)

  • LAX – Los Angeles International

  • LGA – LaGuardia (New York)

  • MCO – Orlando International

  • MDW – Chicago Midway International

  • MEM – Memphis International

  • MIA – Miami International

  • MSP – Minneapolis–St. Paul International

  • OAK – Oakland International

  • ONT – Ontario International

  • ORD – Chicago O'Hare International

  • PDX – Portland International

  • PHL – Philadelphia International

  • PHX – Phoenix Sky Harbor International

  • SAN – San Diego International

  • SDF – Louisville Muhammad Ali International

  • SEA – Seattle–Tacoma International

  • SFO – San Francisco International

  • SLC – Salt Lake City International

  • TEB – Teterboro (New Jersey)

  • TPA – Tampa International

Mapping Where Cancellations and Delays Will Originate

Later today, the Senate will vote for the 15th time to reopen the federal government. Earlier this week, reports indicated that eight centrist Democrats were prepared to join Republicans in ending the longest shutdown in U.S. history. However, the party's far-left progressive wing, which prioritizes illegal aliens over American citizens and has become the new face of the Democratic Party, is pushing back against reopening the government.

Separate, but in markets, FAA-enforced flight cancellations are expected to weigh on jet fuel demand across major US airport hubs.

Check back later for updates. We suspect delays and cancellations will mount throughout the day.  

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