Here's When Goldman Thinks The Shutdown Will End, Scenarios For Reopening, And The Damage Already Done

Key Takeaways

• Polling shows Republicans and President Trump taking more public blame for the shutdown than Democrats, reducing urgency on the left to compromise.

• Missed paychecks for air traffic controllers and TSA agents by early November could replicate the 2019 turning point that forced reopening.

• Economic toll projected at 1.15 percentage points shaved off Q4 GDP growth, with a rebound expected in early 2026.

• Democrats demand an extension of Obamacare subsidies as a condition for reopening; Republicans remain opposed.

• Goldman sees roughly 50/50 odds that a deal is struck before Thanksgiving, most likely through a short-term funding resolution.

• Goldman Sachs expects the government shutdown to end by mid-November, citing mounting economic and political pressure.

The longest government shutdown in U.S. history may soon be nearing its conclusion, according to a new analysis from Goldman, which projects that mounting operational pressures and political deadlines are likely to bring an end to the standoff around the second week of November.